That is purely hypothesis on my half, however I’d wish to go on the file as predicting that American’s New York to Doha route shall be lower sooner quite than later…
The fundamentals of American’s New York to Doha route
In June 2022, American Airways launched a brand new route between New York (JFK) and Doha (DOH). The route is operated each day utilizing a Boeing 777-300ER (although now we have seen some plane variations prior to now). At over 6,700 miles, that is one in all American’s longest flights, because the airline actually doesn’t do quite a lot of extremely lengthy haul flying anymore.
Presumably this route was motivated by a couple of components:
- The World Cup was being hosted in Qatar in late 2022, so at the least for some period of time, there can be important demand for this service
- In 2020, American and Qatar Airways launched a brand new strategic partnership, whereby we’d see extra cooperation between the 2 airways
- Whereas I’m glad to see US and Gulf carriers cooperating extra carefully, this service appears to be a part of American’s larger drawback of not having a really cohesive route planning technique, and simply form of attempting various things in other places
Whereas American is the world’s largest airline, American is only a large home and quick haul worldwide airline, when it comes all the way down to it. For lengthy haul service, American does properly with London year-round, and seasonally does properly with extra Europe flying in summer season (as all airways do), however that’s about it. American’s world route community pales compared to United’s.
American’s New York to Doha route can’t be performing properly
Extremely lengthy haul flying depends on premium demand to be worthwhile, and that’s an space the place this route appears to be performing notably poorly. For the previous few months (admittedly Ramadan is a quiet interval for journey to the Center East, but in addition earlier than and after that) I’ve been preserving an in depth eye on masses on this route, by checking American’s improve lists on the route virtually each day.
OMG these flights are constantly empty in first and enterprise class. Till the day of departure, first-class typically doesn’t have a single particular person booked in it, whereas it’s common to see enterprise class underneath half full, and that’s in spite of everything upgrades have cleared. So if you happen to’re trying to improve, the excellent news is that this route is a close to assure, no matter your standing.
That’s not a very good signal for the success of this route, particularly when you think about the opposite components at play:
- Nobody of their proper thoughts who has the selection would select to guide American enterprise class over Qatar Airways enterprise class, given the stark distinction within the high quality of merchandise
- The economics of extremely lengthy haul flying are difficult to start with, and shall be even harder for American as soon as the brand new pilot contract is ratified, the place pilots shall be making much more than earlier than (it’s disproportionately pricey on extremely lengthy haul flights, the place you might have 4 pilots getting paid for your complete flight)
- American doesn’t even have a strong home community to & from New York, however quite that’s largely served by JetBlue; so for these not originating in New York, you’re a lot better connecting to Qatar Airways at one other gateway
Now, in equity, economic system is usually fairly full on this route, however that’s not precisely excessive yielding site visitors. These are virtually totally passengers connecting past Doha on Qatar Airways, and that makes per-segment income even decrease.
It’s attainable my learn on the state of affairs is mistaken, or that cargo is someway extremely profitable on this route, or that demand will decide up, however every part I see factors to this route not precisely being successful. It’s not a very good signal when a flight is mainly a assured improve, and sometimes goes out with dozens of empty first and enterprise class seats… particularly on a protracted haul route.
Backside line
In 2022, American launched a brand new route between New York and Doha, which marked an thrilling new degree of cooperating with Qatar Airways. Sadly this route hasn’t confirmed to be terribly fashionable when it comes to premium demand, and this must be American’s most constantly empty flight in premium cabins.
For extremely lengthy haul flights, there’s normally an inverse correlation between how simple an improve is on a route and the way worthwhile it’s, and that’s not a very good signal for this route. Possibly issues will enhance, however my cash is on this route being lower earlier than the top of 2023.
What do you assume — will American’s New York to Doha route survive?
