I’m undecided I can actually make sense of the journey panorama anymore…
Transatlantic demand nonetheless via the roof
Again in June I wrote a put up entitled “The Summer time Of Non-Existent Airline Award Seats.” I’ve been monitoring award availability religiously for 15+ years, so I feel I’ve an affordable perspective on demand traits and award availability.
As I’m certain so many individuals can relate to, this previous summer time was merely unprecedented when it got here to journey demand, particularly throughout the Atlantic. Because the world continued to open up, individuals had been able to journey prefer it was 2019, after which some.
I’ve booked hundreds of award tickets in my life (principally for others), and I had by no means seen as little award area throughout the Atlantic as we noticed this previous summer time. Nearly all my tips and methods, together with ready till the final minute, proved much less fruitful than ever earlier than.
The best way it has traditionally labored, Labor Day marks the tip of the busy summer time journey season for leisure demand, as youngsters return to highschool. That’s when the passenger combine shifts from leisure vacationers to enterprise vacationers.
I figured award seats could be a lot simpler to come back by, however even now within the second half of October, I’ve by no means seen a fall season with so little premium transatlantic award area. Right here’s the factor — it’s not that airways are out of the blue stingy with award availability, however reasonably I’m seeing flight after flight roughly bought out in enterprise class.
Sure, we’re even speaking jets with 50-80 enterprise class seats, the place you could possibly traditionally simply snag an award on the final minute. And let’s not even discuss top notch award availability (totally on Lufthansa), the place I’m seeing flight after flight both bought out or with only one seat on the market.
Can somebody assist me perceive who’s touring?
You’d assume that there could be a variety of components pushing transatlantic demand down:
- Enterprise journey nonetheless hasn’t absolutely recovered in comparison with pre-pandemic, not less than in line with most insights I’ve seen (although it’s shifting in the correct course)
- With the USD so sturdy and the EUR and GBP so weak, you’d assume that US-bound demand could be approach down, as touring to america is way much less inexpensive for Europeans proper now
- With the variety of Individuals who traveled to Europe this previous summer time (many for the primary time), you’d assume that they received it out of their system, and wouldn’t be touring proper now
- With youngsters again at school, that largely takes household journey out of the equation
- Many airways have restored pre-pandemic ranges of transatlantic service for this fall, so it’s not even that capability is approach down, and that’s simply inflicting flights that do function to be full
Is there some main issue I’m lacking right here? The one concept I can give you is that a variety of these vacationers are individuals who booked their tickets a number of months in the past, and that that is a part of the identical journey craze we noticed over the summer time. Perhaps these are among the leisure vacationers with out youngsters who determined to not journey to Europe this summer time, and as a substitute waited for the autumn, hoping issues could be quieter and cheaper.
I can’t assist however marvel if this present stage of demand is just by no means going to cease, or if it’s going to fall off a cliff shortly:
- I’ve to think about there was a lower in new bookings originating in Europe, given the foreign money state of affairs
- As soon as we get into November and December, there are fewer leisure locations in Europe that folks go to, particularly coming from america; in October you’ll be able to nonetheless go to only about all hotspots (it’s a perfect time for France, Greece, Italy, Spain, and so on.), whereas quite a bit closes and turns into much less nice within the coming weeks
- Whereas demand remains to be sturdy proper now, I discover it fascinating how Lufthansa just lately suspended a number of transatlantic routes for the winter season, suggesting to me that demand isn’t wanting so good sooner or later
- Then there’s the larger image query of the general financial system; personally I’ve assumed a giant adjustment could be coming someday quickly, however right here we’re
Backside line
There was a variety of discuss how transatlantic demand would drop off after Labor Day, as individuals return to highschool, and the normal summer time journey season ends. Nevertheless, that doesn’t in any respect match what I’m observing, primarily based on each income and award availability traits.
I’m nonetheless seeing transatlantic flights full in a approach I’ve by no means seen earlier than this time of 12 months, significantly in premium cabins. I’d love to listen to what OMAAT readers make of this, and if this matches what others are seeing.
At this level I’m undecided if demand is simply by no means going anyplace, or if we’re in for a giant adjustment shortly, as we get into November.
What’s your tackle how full transatlantic flights are proper now?
