New polling suggests Individuals stay bullish on journey for 2026, however there are clouds on the horizon
Our annual survey of journey sentiment holds a number of surprises in 2026.
When 2025 started, airways had been warning of a drop in bookings — particularly behind the airplane. That led to profitability issues or schedule reductions from main U.S. carriers. However ultimately, 2025 turned out to be a fairly good yr for airways and the journey trade as an entire, regardless of a steep drop in worldwide guests to the U.S.
The variety of passengers that flew in 2025 (over 906 million) barely eclipsed 2024 totals, in keeping with Transportation Safety Administration information.
And in the course of the ultimate months of 2025, the spike in journey was extra notable: About 1.9% extra passengers handed by way of TSA checkpoints between Oct. 1 and Dec. 1 (the fourth quarter) than in 2024. That included an all-time file of three million-plus flyers on Nov. 30, the Sunday after Thanksgiving.
Up to now this yr, the outlook has remained pretty optimistic. We have seen airways including attention-grabbing, new routes, and two of the highest U.S. carriers have predicted a surge in income this yr.
Equally, current polling commissioned by TPG from YouGov exhibits little decline in journey sentiment. In actual fact, many Individuals plan to journey extra this yr, in keeping with our findings.
There are some regarding traits within the information, too: The quantity of people that will journey much less and spend much less on that journey is ticking up yr over yr.
We even have some fascinating, new polling on elite standing to share with you — however let’s begin with journey sentiment.
Most Individuals are planning to journey the identical or greater than final yr
The brand new YouGov survey discovered that simply over half of Individuals (56%) plan to journey extra or the identical quantity in 2026 than they did prior to now two years.
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Practically all (94%) of these planning to journey in 2026 (i.e., “vacationers”) intend to journey domestically, whereas 36% plan to journey internationally.
In actual fact, a few quarter of Individuals (24%) say they plan to journey extra in 2026 than they did prior to now two years, whereas 32% plan to journey about the identical.
Nevertheless it’s not all excellent news in the case of traveler sentiment.
Fewer folks report they may journey this yr than final, and extra report they may spend much less on journey this yr.
13% of Individuals say they may journey lower than they did prior to now few years, whereas 19% of vacationers say they may spend much less on journey this yr.
That is up a number of proportion factors since our final journey sentiment survey again in Could 2025. Do not forget that in Could of final yr, many customers had been very fearful concerning the state of the financial system. So, it’s kind of regarding that fewer individuals are reporting they may journey now — undoubtedly one thing to look at because the yr rolls on.
The significance of elite standing
TPG and YouGov additionally obtained a pulse on elite standing, as many people at TPG debate the query, “Is elite standing price it anymore?”
In an period of fewer upgrades, longer improve lists, fewer perks, dearer mileage redemptions and common devaluations, it is a query we’re all grappling with. It additionally comes as airline standing has gotten more durable and dearer to earn.
We requested whether or not vacationers at present have elite standing with any airline (e.g., AAdvantage Gold within the American Airways AAdvantage program, Silver Medallion within the Delta SkyMiles program, Premium Silver within the United MileagePlus program, and so on.). A whopping 73% of vacationers reported having no airline elite standing, whereas solely 9% have some form of elite standing. I am prepared to wager, although, that if we polled solely TPG readers, these numbers can be fairly totally different.
We additionally requested, “Fascinated with airline elite standing advantages, how, if in any respect, do you assume they’ve modified prior to now two years?”
Of these surveyed, 31% of flyers with elite standing stated elite standing advantages have improved, whereas 59% stated they’ve stayed the identical or gotten worse. That is not what I anticipated, as the advantages of elite standing proceed to be watered down (fewer upgrades are given, mileage redemptions are dearer and so forth).
We additionally particularly requested concerning the worth of factors and miles over time, which aligned higher with expectations. Solely 8% of all flyers stated the worth had elevated prior to now few years; 25% stated the worth stayed the identical, and 18% stated it had dropped.
That is a warning signal for airways and banks that rely upon customers to maintain shopping for into the worth proposition of incomes factors and miles.
There’s some excellent news for 2026. The main airways have left their present incomes standing thresholds intact after elevating necessities over the previous a number of years. Delta Air Traces raised its Delta Medallion standing necessities by steep margins a number of years in the past, and United Airways raised its incomes necessities simply final yr.
Solely time will inform if this stays the case as we get additional into 2026.
Backside line
It is a captivating time in journey, with few indicators of letup in demand. Our new TPG and YouGov polling finds that almost all Individuals plan to journey as a lot or much more than they did prior to now few years. Nonetheless, there are some warnings within the information, and you’ll wager we’ll be watching rigorously for any indicators of a journey slowdown — and what that might imply for you as a traveler.
Associated studying:
The Factors Man commissioned YouGov Plc to conduct the survey. All figures, until in any other case said, are from YouGov Plc. The overall pattern measurement was 2,503 U.S. adults, amongst whom 1,728 plan to journey in 2026. Fieldwork was undertaken between Jan. 9 and 13. The survey was carried out on-line and meets rigorous high quality requirements. It gathered a nonprobability-based pattern and employed demographic quotas and weights to higher align the survey pattern with the broader U.S. inhabitants.
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